Let's talk about Baltika's attack: who is worth keeping, and who it's better to say goodbye to.

The season has been excellent, a record in the club's history. Fighting for fifth or sixth place is cool. The team holds together, the defence works, the structure is clear, Talalaev's ideas are readable.

But there's an unpleasant detail. Baltika's attack looks convincing on one condition only — when Brayan Gil is on the pitch.

Gil has scored 13 goals and become the team's main man in the opposition box. He isn't just "useful in the duels" or "works hard off the ball". He scores. Which, strangely enough, is still a useful quality for a striker.

The problem is that behind Gil there's no forward you could calmly hand ten starts to without starting to clutch your head by the 40th minute.

That is exactly what Baltika has to take into the summer transfer window.

Gil — keep. Sell only for big money

With Gil it's simple. He's the team's main forward.

13 goals from an xG of just over 11, 41 shots, 73 touches in the opposition box — that's the profile of a proper first-choice RPL centre-forward. The man comes out and delivers the result.

Yes, he depends on his team-mates. He needs the flanks, the passes, the crosses, proper service. Gil isn't the kind of forward who creates the chance himself, drives it forward himself, finishes it himself and then explains to his team-mates where they were standing wrong. Not Antoine Griezmann, in short 😁

But for Baltika that isn't a problem. Talalaev's team lives precisely through order, pressure, the flanks and the fight. In a system like that Gil isn't a random element but a working tool. Almost came out as a poem.

The only serious risk is health. The ankle operation after ligament problems seriously complicates the summer planning. You can say all you like that the leader must be kept, but if someone brings 6–8+ million euros, the club is obliged to take the offer.

Not because Gil is bad. The opposite. It's just that right now his price may be at its peak. One more injury of that kind — touch wood, God forbid — and nobody will come at that price tag any more.

Verdict: keep as the starter. Sell only from 6+ million euros and only if there's already a clear replacement plan. Just yesterday Sports.ru was writing about 8+ million; we'll see whether rumours like that are real or not

Offor is not a number 2

It's convenient to talk about Chinonso Offor with the standard set: size, physicality, aerial ability, brute pressure. He has all of that. After the first few rounds I was already thinking, maybe this is the new Drogba, but it didn't come together 😭

The question is this. If Gil is injured or sold, can you calmly put Offor in the starting line-up?

The answer is no.

23 matches, almost 700 minutes, 3 goals (the last in October), 0 assists. For a rotation player that's not a catastrophe. But the problem isn't only in the numbers. Offor creates little himself, rarely adds anything to the attack and depends far too heavily on the delivery. This isn't a forward who comes on and changes a match. More a player for the last 20 minutes: push people about, hold the ball up, win the headers, create a bit of chaos.

A type like that can come in handy. But making him Gil's main understudy is a risk. Too big a bet on a player who hasn't yet proved he can carry a starting role.

The long contract — and his runs to the end of June 2029 — mustn't turn into a trap. If there are options to send him to Turkey, Greece, Cyprus or anywhere else, he has to be sold. If a sale doesn't work out, a loan is a normal option too.

The worst scenario is to start the season with the thought: "Well, if anything happens, Offor will replace Gil." He won't.

Verdict: don't keep as the number 2. Sell or loan out.

Lacerda — not for 1.5 million

With Derik Lacerda it's not simple either. He came in winter, played a little, scored an important goal — and your hand reaches by itself to write: "Well, let him stay, he'll come in useful."

But if the buy-out fee really does reach 1.5 million euros, the conversation ends quickly, all the more so since that's the sum we bought Gil for.

For small money you can keep a reserve forward "just in case". For 1.5 million a player already has to either strengthen the squad immediately or have a clear ceiling to grow into. With Lacerda, so far, you can see neither.

6 matches, 362 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists. Yes, the sample is small. But the arguments for buying him are almost non-existent too. He hasn't proved he's better than Offor, hasn't shown consistent pressure in the box, hasn't given the feeling that after pre-season he'll become a real rival to Gil.

Buying a player simply because he's already in the team is a bad idea. That's not a strategy, it's laziness in the market.

Baltika needs an RPL-level forward. Not another player in the "might come in useful one day" category, especially with the limit tightening.

Verdict: don't buy for 1.5 million euros.

Yenne — sell if there are options

Tenton Yenne is a good example of how statistics from a lower league don't always move with the player.

In Armenia he was a notable figure: goals, assists, status, confidence. He could even have stayed there another year, got a passport and played for the Armenian national team. In the RPL everything turned out harder. Less space, more contact, quicker decisions — and decisions are exactly where he has obvious problems. He always seems to make them half a second late.

Yenne has physique, experience and versatility. But over the season he never became a clearly defined first-team player. He was tried in different roles, shuffled between positions, a place was sought for him — and not found.

For a foreigner that's a problem. Especially with the limit in mind. A foreigner's place in the squad has to give the team obvious quality. Yenne hasn't given that quality so far.

You could keep him another six months if there are no options at all. But if an offer comes in from 500 thousand euros, he has to be let go.

Verdict: sell for an offer from 0.5 million euros.

What to do in the summer

The main mistake Baltika could make is to pick up a few more players "for depth". That's usually how you assemble the kind of bench the coach looks at in May like a man who has opened the fridge and found only a jar of pickled cucumbers nobody wants to open and a lonely sausage whose sell-by date expired back at the winter training camp

Two specific profiles are needed.

The first is a centre-forward aged 23–26, ready for RPL level. Not a star, not a poster boy, not a pretty highlights reel. What's needed is a player who can fight, play with his back to goal, press, make runs in the box and score his 5–7 goals a season. Preferably with a Russian passport or no problems for the limit.

Where to get one, admittedly, is anyone's guess 😁

The second is a real winger. Not an inside forward looking for a shot. Not a striker shoved out wide because there was nowhere else to put him. What's needed is a player who can beat a man one on one, cross, deliver the final pass, win a penalty, and not vanish against a packed defence.

Who not to sign:

  • another average foreigner without an obvious edge;
  • a 30+ veteran;
  • a loan without a clear sporting point;
  • a player you'll then spend half a season explaining to yourself.

Money-wise it all looks broadly acceptable. 2–3 million euros for the forward. 1–2 million for the winger. Selling Offor and Yenne could partly cover the costs. If Gil leaves, that's a different scenario altogether: a total ar*e — not a spot repair but a rebuild of the entire attack.

Summary

Baltika has a good team, but the attack has rested for too long on one solution — Gil. While he's fit, everything's great. When he's not there, it gets very scary, and something has to be done about it.

In the next few instalments I'll suggest several options to buy. No generalities there — specific names, prices and the logic to fit Talalaev's style.