This wasn't a classic Loko win with total control, more a match of survival after an early gift: a quick Rudenko goal in the 4th minute, a Baltika red card from the 12th, and then 75-plus minutes in which Lokomotiv seemed to have every condition but never closed the game out. The result was 1:0, although even with ten men Baltika stayed in the match until the end.
The main paradox
Loko played 11 against 10 for almost the whole game, had 65% possession and made 508 passes to 273, but lost on xG: 1.41 to 1.61.
That is the intrigue of the match. On territory, passing volume, touches in the box and shots, Lokomotiv was stronger:12–9 on shots, 6–3 on target, 37–27 on touches in the box, 423 accurate passes against 167. But the quality of Baltika's chances turned out no worse, and on xG even higher, largely because of the penalty.
Why Lokomotiv won
1. The early goal broke the script
Rudenko scored in the 4th minute, and the match immediately switched into a mode where Loko can take its time and Baltika is obliged to open up. For a team that then got a red card in the 12th, that's almost the worst possible start.
Rudenko was generally one of the most useful players:3 shots, 2 goalscoring chances, 0.40 xG, an 8.23 rating. No fireworks, but a very concrete contribution: the chance came, he took it.
2. Mitryushkin — the quiet hero
By FotMob, Mitryushkin had the best rating in the match: 8.51. And that's logical: Baltika had only 3 shots on target, but among them were some very dangerous episodes, including the penalty.
At 1:0 a match like this easily turns from "we controlled it" into "we've only ourselves to blame". Mitryushkin didn't let it.
3. Loko's midfield crushed by volume
Vera, Morozov, Fasson were the main men on the ball:
- Vera — 86 touches, 66 accurate passes
- Fasson — 86 touches, 54 passes
- Morozov — 81 touches, 58 passes
This wasn't so much the fast, vertical Loko as a team that used possession to keep the opponent in a low/mid block. The difference in passes in the opposition half is especially striking: 246 accurate for Loko against 69 for Baltika.
Why the match stayed interesting to the end
1. Loko didn't finish it off
With a man advantage, 65% possession and 37 touches in the box you expect not a razor-thin 1:0 but at least a second goal. Yet Loko had only one big chance and one missed goalscoring opportunity.
So the pressure was there, the approaches were plentiful, but inside the box the passing lacked cleanness. Lots of possession, little return.
2. Even with ten men, Baltika found a fight
Baltika had the least of everything: passes, possession, touches, corners. But in the battle the team didn't fall apart:60–57 on duels in Baltika's favour, and a slight edge on the ground too: 37–34.
That's an important marker. After the red card, Talalaev's team didn't just sit back and wait. It kept biting, clinging on, earning set pieces and keeping the chance of 1:1 alive.
3. The penalty made the statistics more honest than the score
xG: 1.61 for Baltika against 1.41 for Loko. But without the penalty the visitors would have left a completely different impression: open-play xG was 0.58 to 0.58.
So in open play the teams created roughly the same. It's just that Baltika had the biggest chance of the match, and it didn't become a goal.
Tactical conclusion
Lokomotiv got the perfect start and a numerical advantage, but from there played more pragmatically than convincingly. The team controlled the ball, got into the opposition half a lot, but didn't turn the advantage into a stream of big chances.
Baltika after the red card looked not like a dead team but like an awkward opponent, one that even with ten men remained dangerous through the fight, set pieces and individual bursts. In that sense 1:0 isn't a random score but a very accurate description of the match: Loko was better structurally, Baltika good enough to keep the hosts nervous to the end.
Baltika player ratings
Lyubakov — 6.5. A good game. Hard to save the early goal; after that he kept them in it
Varatynov — 6.0. A solid match in defence. Suffered a lot without the ball, made no glaring mistakes.
Andrade — 4.5. Sent off in the 12th minute; debatable, but you can't play like that in the middle of the pitch.
Anderson — 6.0. A normal working game. More about discipline and cover than eye-catching actions. Lost his man for the first goal, played reliably after that, most tackles of anyone
Yenne — 5.5. A hard match. No goal contributions again. We're getting used to it
Lacerda — 5.5. Didn't provide the required quality, replaced at half-time.
Gassama — 7.0. Baltika's best. Gnawed the ball away, won it back a lot and didn't let Loko knock it around in comfort.
Ilya Petrov — 5.5. Was one of the main sources of threat. Had his moments; you don't take penalties like that.
Mendel — 5.5An average match. Lost Rudenko for the first goal, won the penalty
Beveev — 6.5. Handled the tempo well and added movement. One of those who didn't let Baltika fall apart.
Maksim Petrov — 5.5. An anonymous match up front. Clung on to the ball, passed poorly.
Kovalev — 6.0. Came on after the break and got into the tempo fine. No turning of the game, but no failure either.
Belikov — 6.0. A decent substitution. Added freshness in the middle and looked assured.
Offor — 5.0. The main minus on the ratings. Held little up, created little, competed poorly, shot poorly, all very poor.
Murid — 6.0. In a short spell gave some fight and useful dirty work. A normal cameo.
Kovac — 5.0. Barely got into the game. He was on the pitch, but it would have been better if he hadn't been =)
In short
Baltika's best by FotMob: Gassama, Lyubakov and Beveev. That fits the match well: the team defended a lot and held out with ten men, so the highest ratings went to those who gave volume in defence, in the fight and in progressing the ball.
